Top Quotes from 2012

By Ray Long, ASPO-USA Associate Director

Much like we did last year for 2011, we would like to take a quick look back at some of the stories, personalities, and quotes of the year that was 2012. One of the interesting aspects of the year was unmistakable visibility of Peak Oil discussions. It was only a few years ago, that Peak Oil was often considered a topic not to be discussed in polite company. Those days are clearly in the past.

But these developments have not been without pushback. 2012 was a banner year for those who hope to discredit, confuse, and misinform the public about Peak Oil and the energy challenges we face. Thankfully, as the quotes below show, many voices have risen together to bring clarity back to these energy discussions.

As we move forward into 2013, it’s worth remembering the words of ASPO-USA Board Member Kurt Cobb from early last year:

“Does that mean that peak oil activists have reached their goal of informing the public and policymakers about the risks and opportunities posed by Peak Oil? Of course not. This is where the hard work begins because the debate has now been elevated to the national and international stage. And, that means we can look forward to a continuous clash that is increasingly in the public eye…

Far from being discouraged by the rash of Peak Oil denunciations in the media lately, I am invigorated by it. Remember: we’re now on offense; they’re on defense. The opposition has to explain why oil production has been flat since 2005 despite high prices. And, the twisted logic and demonstrably false assertions they offer will provide ever better opportunities to trump them again and again.

I have always maintained that when you are in a public dogfight in the media, if you are explaining, you are losing. The Peak Oil movement now needs to focus on planting doubt about the official cornucopian story. And, the best way to do that is continuously to poke holes in the arguments of the optimists, arguments that can be shown to be ridiculous by combining simple logic with the data that is publicly available.”

Here are some quotes from 2012:

Fareed Zakaria
(from the January 16 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Russia now needs oil at $110 a barrel to manage its finances. For Iraq, the number is $100. Even Saudi Arabia now needs oil to trade around $80 a barrel just to balance its budgets… Only a decade ago Saudi Arabia was able to balance its budget with oil prices averaging around $25 a barrel.”

James Murray and David King, Nature, “Oil’s Tipping Point Has Passed”
(from the January 30 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“The approaches needed for tackling the economic impacts of resource scarcity and climate change are the same: moving away from a dependence on fossil-fuel energy sources. Whereas the implications of climate change have driven only slow policy responses, economic consequences tend to drive shorter-term action.”

James Harren, Wall Street Journal
(from the February 20 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“…there is good reason to be skeptical that the world’s oil production can be forever buoyed by new technology… oil production from existing areas like the North Sea or Alaska declines steadily, meaning the industry must run just to stand still.”

Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Globe and Mail
(from the February 2 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“…concerned analysts usually point to two basic facts. First, each year, the world’s mature conventional fields produce about four million barrels a day less oil than the previous year, a gap that has to be filled just to keep global output constant. In only five years, that gap grows to 20 million barrels a day of production — equivalent to twice Saudi Arabia’s output, which is mammoth. Second, the world’s cheap and easy-to-get oil is disappearing fast. So, on average, each additional barrel requires more work, more complex technology, more environmental risk to get and refine than the last.”

Chris Martenson
(from the February 27 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Efforts are underway to convince the general populace that our energy concerns are a thing of the past and that the new energy discoveries in the Bakken and other shale formations have proven Peak Oil to be a mistaken idea. Some efforts go even further and flatly state that energy independence is right around the corner. Nothing could be further from the truth.”

Maggie Koerth-Baker, “Before the Lights Go Out”
(from the March 26 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“There’s not a good argument here for business as usual… We think of optimism as a virtue. It’s a trait of people who don’t give up, a better way of thinking. But optimistic means something else when you’re talking about science. When a scientist decides that an estimate is optimistic, she’s applying that label in relation to two other possibilities: pessimistic, and realistic. Optimism isn’t the ideal here.”

Bryan Walsh, TIME
(from the April 2 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“The decline of major conventional oil fields-coupled with the rapidly rising demand from countries like China and India-means the spare production capacity that once cushioned prices is melting away, ushering in an era of volatile market swings.”

(As part of Walsh’s TIME cover story, “The Future of Oil” (Contrast the Asia and Europe covers with the U.S. cover))

Michael Levi, “Oil and Gas Euphoria Is Getting Out of Hand”
(from the May 14 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“There is a real risk that policymakers, wrongly convinced that surging supply has solved all US energy vulnerabilities, will neglect the demand side of the equation. But the basic reality hasn’t changed: more supply can help, but to fundamentally reduce US vulnerability to the vagaries of world energy markets, we need to rein in our extraordinary (and economically self-damaging) demand.” 

ASPO-USA Board Member Arthur Berman, on the CBS Evening News
(from the May 25 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“So many of us watched this slow train wreck happening and asked: Why are all these smart people, running these smart companies, consciously producing more gas than the market needs…”

James Hamilton, “Peak Oil and price incentives”
(from the June 18 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“We like to think that the reason we enjoy our high standards of living is because we have been so clever at figuring out how to use the world’s available resources. But we should not dismiss the possibility that there may also have been a nontrivial contribution of simply having been quite lucky to have found an incredibly valuable raw material that for a century and a half or so was relatively easy to obtain.”

Leonardo Maugeri, in the Harvard energy study “Oil: The Next Revolution”
(from the July 2 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“The age of “cheap oil” is probably behind us, but it is still uncertain what the future level of oil prices might be. Technology may turn today’s expensive oil into tomorrow’s cheap oil.”

(Responses have been written by Dave Summers and Richard Heinberg)

James Hamilton
(from the July 23 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“I agree with Maugeri that new production from places like the United States and Iraq is going to be very helpful. But I think he substantially overstates the case for optimism. If we are counting on sources such as shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater to replace production lost from mature conventional oil fields, the days of cheap oil are never going to return.”

Chris Nelder, “Is Peak Oil Dead?”
(from the July 30 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“We must conclude that the key assumptions about reserve growth and its effect on decline rates in Maugeri’s report are muddled, speculative and unverifiable. And sprinkling those assertions with repeated declamations about how Peak Oil is a non-issue, insisting repeatedly that the only real constraints on his scenario have to do with political decisions and geopolitical risks, suggests that his report is more about grinding a political axe on behalf of the oil industry than offering a serious or transparent analysis.”

Colin Campbell
(from the August 20 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“The first half of the age of oil saw this rampant expansion of industry, transportation, trade, agriculture. The population went up six times in parallel over 100 to 150 years… triggered by the cheap, easy energy that made everything possible. Now we face the second half, which is about to dawn, which just undermines this whole world system under which we’re now living… Naturally, no one wants to admit that.”

Richard Heinberg
(from the September 3 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“What’s new is high oil prices and … the economy hates high oil prices.”

(From the Post Carbon Institute’s online video: “Don’t Worry, Drive On” – arguably the finest short video on Peak Oil ever made.)

Heidy Rehman, Citigroup analyst
(from the September 10 edition of Peak Oil Review)

 “If Saudi Arabian oil consumption grows in line with peak power demand, the country could be a net oil importer by 2030.”

Daniel Yergin
(from the September 17 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“The last time we had a presidential election, the U.S. was going to run out of oil. Since then, U.S. oil production has grown about 25%. As has happened in the past, technology has opened doors people didn’t know were there or didn’t think could be opened.”

ASPO-USA Board Member Jeffrey Brown
(from the October 15 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Since 2005, China and India have consumed an increasing share of a declining volume of oil exports… If we extrapolate current trends, China and India alone would consume 100% of global net oil exports by 2030.”

Candy Crowley, moderator of the second U.S. presidential debate
(from the October 22 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Mr. President, let me just see if I can move you to the gist of this question, which is, are we looking at the new normal? I can tell you that tomorrow morning, a lot of people in Hempstead will wake up and fill up and they will find that the price of gas is over $4 a gallon. Is it within the purview of the government to bring those prices down, or are we looking at the new normal?”

Brad Plumer, “IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy”
(from the October 29 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“… these scenarios aren’t easy to model—especially since nations might respond in unpredictable ways…  All told, however, the IMF authors say it’s quite possible that a decent-sized decline in oil production could have “dramatic” effects that could prove very, very difficult for the world to adjust to.”

(Note: Michael Kumhof, co-author of the IMF paper, spoke at the 2012 ASPO-USA conference.)

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
(from the November 12 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“It has been my great honor to serve the constituents of the 6th district of Maryland for the past 20 years…”

Bryan Walsh, TIME
(from the November 26 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Of course, like all long-term forecasts, the World Energy Outlook should be taken with a shaker full of salt. The IEA’s models assume that shale oil will keep producing well into the future, even though shale wells tend to dry out much more rapidly than conventional wells. That means oil companies need to keep drilling more and more wells to sustain output—and no one knows how sustainable that strategy is.”

Wayne Slater, Dallas Morning News
(from the December 3 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“A group of scientists, scholars and energy activists meeting this week at the University of Texas say they see an impending global decline in oil production. That would mean higher prices, more conservation, an emphasis on alternatives and substantial lifestyle changes.”

Richard A. Kerr, Science
(from the December 10 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“… money may be the most uncertain factor in the IEA scenario. It has the price of a barrel of oil rising to $125 in real terms by 2035. Such an increase would fund the maintenance of crude oil production, drive up production of unconventional oil, and encourage transportation’s shift toward NGLs. The catch: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would have to restrain its production as non-OPEC production surges to allow prices to rise. The scenario is silent on the chances of that.”

Michael Levi, The New York Times
(from the December 24 edition of Peak Oil Review)

 “… oil and gas production in the United States is surging and is expected to continue to rise. This trend has led a parade of analysts and even the government’s National Intelligence Council to predict that, after four decades of failed attempts, America might soon become energy independent. This view, if taken too far, is not only wrong, it is dangerous. The United States would remain entangled with the global oil market indefinitely even if it were to import no oil. Political leaders lulled into a false sense of security by rising domestic oil and gas output run the risk of making big mistakes.”

Ed Morse, Citigroup
(from the December 24 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Peak oil is dead.”

Platts
(from the December 31 edition of Peak Oil Review)

“Representatives from The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA met for two hours on December 17 with EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski and EIA staff to discuss concerns laid out in an October letter…”

 

D. Ray Long serves as the Associate Director for ASPO-USA and resides in Washington D.C. He received his Bachelors of Science from Michigan State University and a Masters in Engineering studying alternative energy at Wayne State University. Previously he served as a consultant focusing on residential appliance energy standards for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Star program.

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