ASPO-USA Advisory Board

Looking Back at Peak Oil

by Richard Vodra – “Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in 2012. That’s one of the main conclusions of a new report, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – The Supply Outlook, released in March 2013 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG). This event will have profound long-term implications for how advisors should manage clients’ portfolios, and how clients should plan their future expenses…”

An Interview with Steven Kopits

“In aggregate, upstream spend is still rising, but at a decreasing pace. If we look at the issue more broadly though, there are some things happening in the oil business that are beginning to validate views that we, and analysts like Chris Skrebowski, have held regarding economic peak oil.

Peak oil does not occur when we run out of oil. Peak oil occurs when the marginal consumer is no longer willing to pay the cost of extracting and processing the marginal barrel of oil. And we can actually calculate what the related numbers are…”

Reflections on the Conference on “Peak Oil: Challenges and Opportunities for the GCC Countries”

By Robert L. Hirsch – “I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind Peak Oil conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of denial.
The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future…”

Reasons Mexico’s Oil Production Has Stagnated

By Raúl González García: “Mexico´s crude production peaked at 3.455 Mbopd in 2004 and has already declined to 2.568 Mbopd, (Feb 28, 2013). I believe it will not be possible to return to former production levels, nor even to the present official forecast of 3 million barrels per day…”

Peak Oil Review – May 13, 2013

“It was largely a quiet week for the energy markets. NY oil hovered around $96 a barrel, London’s Brent around $104, natural gas futures just below $4 per million, and gasoline futures around $2.87 a gallon with little movement in any of the markets. Downward pressure on prices came from a weak yen which slid to a 4-year low against the dollar, increased OPEC production, and continuing growth in US petroleum stocks to the highest level since 1931…”

Peak Oil Review – May 6, 2013

“Newsflash: oil markets were volatile again last week. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, prices started at $92.70, dipped as low as $90 before closing up strongly to settle at $95.61. That was the top closing price in a month, though still off from the year’s high of roughly $100. On the London futures market, Brent crude ended the week at $104, also up modestly for the week…”

Peak Oil Review – April 29, 2013

“Futures prices of both oil and natural gas reversed the trends of the prior week. In fact, both sets of prices ended up where they started mid-month, during a period of increased volatility. Oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange started the month at just under $98, dropped in two steps to $87 by mid-month, then recovered sharply last week to close at $93. On the London ICE, Brent crude started the month near $109, fell 10% to below $97 before settling Friday at $103.16. The spread between the NYMEX and Brent, now at $10/barrel, is near its low for the year…”

Peak Oil Review – April 22, 2013

“Oil prices on the New York Exchange dropped sharply through mid-day Thursday to the lowest level of the year–$85.71 per barrel—before recovering modestly to close Friday at $88.01. That was still the lowest closing number since last December and represented a loss of $3.50 per barrel for the week. For reference, NYMEX oil had traded in a relatively narrow range between $91 and $98 over the last four months. In London, Brent also dropped below $100 for the first time in 8 months and was down 11% from January. After testing the $95 level on Thursday, Brent crude for May delivery closed Friday at $99.65…”