“In aggregate, upstream spend is still rising, but at a decreasing pace. If we look at the issue more broadly though, there are some things happening in the oil business that are beginning to validate views that we, and analysts like Chris Skrebowski, have held regarding economic peak oil.
Peak oil does not occur when we run out of oil. Peak oil occurs when the marginal consumer is no longer willing to pay the cost of extracting and processing the marginal barrel of oil. And we can actually calculate what the related numbers are…”
By Robert L. Hirsch – “I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind Peak Oil conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of denial.
The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future…”
By Raúl González García: “Mexico´s crude production peaked at 3.455 Mbopd in 2004 and has already declined to 2.568 Mbopd, (Feb 28, 2013). I believe it will not be possible to return to former production levels, nor even to the present official forecast of 3 million barrels per day…”
By Roger Blanchard – “A lot has been made in the media about how rapidly oil production is increasing in North Dakota due to development of tight oil in the Bakken Shale region of the state. Less has been made of the rapidly increasing oil production in Texas.
According to United States Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA) data, oil production is rising faster in Texas than it is in North Dakota…”
By Randy Udall – “At a petroleum conference held some years ago, at the dawn of the shale rush, Richard Nehring, an industry veteran, was asked whether shale gas was ‘just a band-aid.’
‘I hope not,’ Mr. Nehring laughed. ‘Because we need a tourniquet!’ “
By Jeffrey Brown – “In this paper, I introduce the concept of the Export Capacity Index (ECI), which is simply the ratio of total petroleum liquids production to liquids consumption in net oil exporting countries. I then examine actual case histories, and I discuss Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) and what I call Available Net Exports (ANE), or GNE less the Chindia (China + India) region’s combined net oil imports.
My basic premise is that the net oil importing OECD countries are maintaining something resembling “Business As Usual” only because of huge and almost totally overlooked rates of depletion in post-2005 Global and Available Cumulative Net Exports of oil.”
By Richard Vodra – “A few weeks ago, John Mauldin called fracking a “happy solution” that will produce jobs, potentially solve our trade deficit and generate new tax revenue, though energy prices may rise in the process. But how excited should we be about the “shale revolution”?
Over the last few years, we have seen increasing enthusiasm – bordering on hype – over the idea that horizontal drilling plus hydraulic fracturing of shale rock to produce oil and gas, commonly referred to as “fracking,” is changing everything…”
By Ray Long – “Much like we did last year for 2011, we would like to take a quick look back at some of the stories, personalities, and quotes of the year that was 2012. One of the interesting aspects of the year was unmistakable visibility of Peak Oil discussions. It was only a few years ago, that Peak Oil was often considered a topic not to be discussed in polite company. Those days are clearly in the past…”
By Roger Blanchard – “In mid-November of 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a statement claiming that the United States (U.S.) would surpass Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2017. I assume the IEA obtained its U.S. oil production forecast from the U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA). The statement was carried extensively by the U.S. media…”
by Richard Vodra – “Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in 2012. That’s one of the main conclusions of a new report, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – The Supply Outlook, released in March 2013 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG). This event will have profound long-term implications for how advisors should manage clients’ portfolios, and how clients should plan their future expenses…”
An Interview with Steven Kopits
“In aggregate, upstream spend is still rising, but at a decreasing pace. If we look at the issue more broadly though, there are some things happening in the oil business that are beginning to validate views that we, and analysts like Chris Skrebowski, have held regarding economic peak oil.
Peak oil does not occur when we run out of oil. Peak oil occurs when the marginal consumer is no longer willing to pay the cost of extracting and processing the marginal barrel of oil. And we can actually calculate what the related numbers are…”
Reflections on the Conference on “Peak Oil: Challenges and Opportunities for the GCC Countries”
By Robert L. Hirsch – “I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind Peak Oil conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of denial.
The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future…”
Reasons Mexico’s Oil Production Has Stagnated
By Raúl González García: “Mexico´s crude production peaked at 3.455 Mbopd in 2004 and has already declined to 2.568 Mbopd, (Feb 28, 2013). I believe it will not be possible to return to former production levels, nor even to the present official forecast of 3 million barrels per day…”
Looking Back at Peak Oil
by Richard Vodra – “Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in 2012. That’s one of the main conclusions of a new report, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – The Supply Outlook, released in March 2013 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG). This event will have profound long-term implications for how advisors should manage clients’ portfolios, and how clients should plan their future expenses…”
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